[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 070115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070114 
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-070315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MD...DE...PORTIONS SERN PA AND SRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 070114Z - 070315Z

LINE OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS HAS BACKBUILT SWWD ALONG COLD
FRONT...INTO PORTIONS NRN MD.  EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ESSENTIALLY IN PACE WITH EWD MOTION OF COLD
FRONT. RESULTANT CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CROSS DE VALLEY AND NRN
CHESAPEAKE BAY REGIONS...WEAKENING AS IT APCHS ATLANTIC COAST WHERE
SFC AIR MASS TRANSITIONS TO MORE COOL/STABLE MARINE LAYER.  THREAT
APPEARS MARGINAL ENOUGH SUCH THAT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM...HOWEVER GUSTS OF LARGELY SUBSEVERE CRITERIA MAY STILL PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL DAMAGE.

00Z IAD RAOB SHOWS MUCAPE 400-500 J/KG ATOP WELL MIXED CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  SUBCLOUD EVAPORATION CAN ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH
AND AID IN TRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO SFC...FROM AREA OF 40-50 KT FLOW
2-4 KM AGL.  COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING -- AND OVER ERN
NJ/ERN DELMARVA AREA...MARINE CAA -- WILL REDUCE DCAPE WITH TIME. 
MEANWHILE...BACKBUILDING MAY EXTEND AS FAR S AS LATITUDE OF SRN
DE/MD BORDER BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE.

..EDWARDS.. 11/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

39257688 40457544 40697398 40467396 40267395 39747406
39367436 38537510 

WWWW