[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Nov 6 23:49:03 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 062348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062347 
VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-070115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PA...NRN NJ...ERN NY...WRN VT...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 851...

VALID 062347Z - 070115Z

COLD FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTAINING SEVERAL BOW/LEWP FEATURES WILL
MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS MOST OF
WW AREA..INCLUDING ALB/GFL/POU REGIONS.  ZONE OF DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND E AND SE OF SRN PORTION WW...ACROSS PORTIONS
SERN PA...NJ AND NYC AREA...BUT DIMINISHING WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT
AS INFLOW BECOMES MORE STABLE. ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM
BECAUSE OF LIMITED AREA OF THREAT AND DECLINING PROBABILITIES WITH
EWD EXTENT.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL/MOIST AXES JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE
BAND OVER ERN NY...THERMAL AXIS CURVING SWWD OVER ERN PA AND MOST
AXIS SEWD ACROSS ERN NJ AND JUST OFFSHORE.  ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL
ZONE -- ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MARINE AIR MASS ADVECTED OFF ATLANTIC
-- EXTENDING NEARLY MERIDIONALLY INVOF ERN NY BORDER.  STRONG
ISALLOBARIC FORCING OVER ONT/SRN QUE...AND ASSOCIATED BACKING OF LOW
SFC FLOW...SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER E
OF MARINE FRONT DRIFTING FARTHER WWD INTO MORE OF HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS BEFORE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTIVE BAND.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INTENSE LOW LEVEL WAA ABOVE STABLE LAYER WILL OFFSET WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN TSTM POTENTIAL INTO WRN/NRN
NEW ENGLAND...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG.  HOWEVER
SEVERE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH GREATLY AS CONVECTION
CROSSES MARINE FRONT AND PROCEEDS EWD.

..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

41097570 41707539 41907522 42207528 42717474 43237483
43487427 43977417 44317438 44997423 45017229 42727325
42097342 41727348 41097357 40487392 40017420 39847512
39827560 39817700 

WWWW