[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 081835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081835 
OHZ000-INZ000-082100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CST TUE NOV 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IND...SWRN AND CNTRL OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081835Z - 082100Z

TSTMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
CNTRL AND SWRN OH. THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS LIMITED TO ISOLATED AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL.

STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE ERN EXTENT
OF A WARM FRONT BISECTING IND/OH AREA. LIFT ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY WAS
LIKELY BEING AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EAST FROM IL/IND. GIVEN ANTECEDENT
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS...AND INFLUX OF UNSEASONABLY
MOIST AIRMASS IN THE LOW THROUGH MID LEVELS...EXPECT RESULTANT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STOUT UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50KT AND VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR WERE ALSO AIDING
STORM ORGANIZATION AND COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND HAIL
PRODUCTION.

PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND OBS ACROSS SRN OH SUGGEST
SURFACE HEATING COULD FURTHER WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND BOOST
 SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF STORMS CAN
INCREASE ACROSS WARM-SECTOR...FROM ERN IND INTO SRN OH...A WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.

..CARBIN.. 11/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

39248477 40158570 40828530 40568223 39928118 39308198
38738281 

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