[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Nov 6 16:46:23 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 061645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061644 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-061845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 848...

VALID 061644Z - 061845Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS ERN OH AND FAR
WRN PA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WW 848 WILL BE
REPLACED WITH A NEW WW.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN
OH. SEVERAL LINES OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING IN THE ERN PART OF WW
848 AHEAD OF A STRONG BAND OF ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE LINES
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL ALLOW FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT
SPREADING EWD WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE LINE TO INTENSIFY. AS A
RESULT...WW 848 WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDING LOCALLY IN ERN OH AND
ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF PA. THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

38938252 39428278 40788174 42048088 42348006 41847937
39418130 

WWWW