[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Nov 6 15:13:02 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 061512
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061511 
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-061715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0911 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...WCNTRL PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061511Z - 061715Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LINE DEVELOPS
ACROSS WRN NY AND WCNTRL PA THIS MORNING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS CURRENTLY BEING ISSUED ACROSS THE AREA.

SFC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW OVER LAKE
HURON WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WRN NY AND WRN PA. SEVERAL
LINE SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE PRESSURE FALL
AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S F. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS WEAK...SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG SUGGESTING ANY
STORM ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE.
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE.

..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

40057965 41987969 43327916 43447782 43067700 41657689
39857750 39617868 39857959 

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