[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Nov 6 00:38:12 UTC 2005

ACUS11 KWNS 060037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060036 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-060200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2376
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL/ERN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 841...

VALID 060036Z - 060200Z

TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH AROUND 2Z
ACROSS WW AREA...BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT...MAINTAINING FULL-SPECTRUM SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL THEN. 
THEREAFTER...COMBINATION OF MAINLY LINEAR MODE AND DIABATIC SFC
COOLING/STABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR INFLOW REGION WILL REDUCE
TORNADO THREAT...THOUGH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL STILL WILL BE LIKELY.
 MEANWHILE...SEVERAL PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLS ARE EVIDENT AS OF
0030Z...INCLUDING ANOMALOUSLY INTENSE LEFT-SPLITTER MOVING NNEWD
ACROSS MONROE/SERN SHELBY COUNTY WHICH MAY PRODUCE VERY
LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL OVER MARION/LEWIS/CLARK COUNTIES MO.  ACTIVITY
SW JEF AS OF 0030Z MAY DEVELOP INTO BOW ECHO AND TRACK ENEWD TOWARD
STL AREA WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT.  REPORT OF 70 KT GUST WAS
RECEIVED FROM BOONE COUNTY MO AT 2350Z ALONG WITH 1.75 INCH HAIL.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED LOW OVER
CENTRAL/NERN MO NEAR COU...WHICH WILL MOVE NEWD INTO NRN IL OVER
NEXT FEW HOURS.  ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND BACKING OF SFC
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLY LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NERN MO AND NRN IL...E AND NE OF PROJECTED
SFC LOW TRACK AND INVOF WARM FRONT OVER NWRN IL.  MEANWHILE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN MO.  WW MAY
BE CLEARED BEHIND FRONT...AS COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND WEAKENING LIFT
REDUCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE SHOULD
CONTINUE FORMING THROUGH 03Z...AS ONGOING ACTIVITY COALESCES OVER WW
AREA AND BACKBUILDS SWWD THROUGH WW 842.  LINEAR MODE WILL BE
SUPPORTED MORE WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND INFLOW
ABOVE SFC IS ALIGNED MORE PARALLEL TO FORCING BOUNDARY.

..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

37969336 40609140 41059009 41078926 40838880 40488857
40258864 39508948 38458982 37959054 37789122 

WWWW