[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 060126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060125 
MOZ000-ARZ000-060300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN AR AND SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 842...

VALID 060125Z - 060300Z

IR AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE
BACKBUILDING TOWARD AREA JUST N FSM...WITH DEEPENING TOWERS E OF
LINE IN WARM SECTOR.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH
DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE.  TSTM BAND WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS OZARKS TOWARD N-CENTRAL AR AND S-CENTRAL/SERN MO.  

ANIMATION OF 05/18Z-06/00Z SGF RAOBS SHOWS CLASSIC PROFILE FOR ONSET
OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT REMOVING LARGE AMOUNTS OF CINH...AND THIS
PROCESS SHOULD EXTEND SWD AT LEAST INTO EXTREME NRN AR.  PRIND SRN
END OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE NEAR I-40 OVER
NWRN AR...AS STRONGLY DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE IN MO LIFTS NEWD AHEAD
OF INTENSE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF
STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FORCING TURNS NEWD AWAY FROM REGION.  1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE WILL TRANSITION TO SIMILAR VALUES OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY
AS DIABATICALLY DRIVEN DECOUPLING OCCURS IN INFLOW
SECTOR...ACCOMPANIED BY AROUND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

..EDWARDS.. 11/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

35559425 37319329 37819240 37799137 37759090 37569065
36769105 36509115 35439143 35499207 35369285 

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