[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 052119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052119 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-052315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2374
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MO...WRN IL...EXTREME SERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 052119Z - 052315Z

A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF MO AND
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SERN IA AND WRN IL.

LATEST VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL
AND PROFILER DATA WERE ALL DEPICTING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
MOVING EAST ACROSS KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LARGE ASCENT WAS
INDUCING LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER WRN MO WHERE A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED ON A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE
LOW TO NRN IL. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE DATA SUGGESTING MLCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER... RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE AND
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SO FAR
INHIBITED SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

CAPPING INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE DUE TO HEATING/MIXING AND
MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR SURFACE LOW AND FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. ONCE DEEP CONVECTION FORMS AND TAKES ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS ORGANIZED
STORMS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE FROM INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR
ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT GIVEN FORECAST 0-1KM SRH IN
EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 FOR EWD TRACKING CELLS. RAPID EWD ADVANCE OF
LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY OVERTAKE CELLULAR STORMS WITH ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING INTO A
SEVERE SQUALL LINE...WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES...AFTER DARK. WIND
DAMAGE...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL THEN SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 11/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

39409395 39879301 40459222 41188944 40488896 38709011
37579284 37749422 38869437 

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