[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 051821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051821 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-052045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CST SAT NOV 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051821Z - 052045Z

TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN A BAND FROM NRN
MO/SRN IA NEWD ACROSS NRN IL/SRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL. A WATCH IS
NOT IMMINENT BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
A LEAD IMPULSE NOW MOVING TOWARD NWRN MO FROM NERN KS ENHANCES DEEP
LAYER ASCENT ACROSS A WARM FRONT ROUGHLY SITUATED FROM IRK TO GBG TO
MDW. WHILE THIS LEAD IMPULSE IS WELL AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SUFFICIENT LIFT AND
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST DVN SOUNDING AT 18Z FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR BOTH INCREASING SINCE 12Z.
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A GOOD PROBABILITY OF
PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS INCREASING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH 21Z.

..CARBIN.. 11/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

41708759 41098829 40399084 40059195 40179307 41189256
41869179 42239133 42649052 42878970 43058904 42828761
42488689 

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