[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 010114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010114 
LAZ000-TXZ000-010245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 PM CST MON OCT 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS COASTAL AREA THROUGH SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 840...

VALID 010114Z - 010245Z

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST FROM S TX NEWD ALONG THE TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS WITH A MORE LIMITED THREAT INTO SRN LA NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AND
ANOTHER WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED E OF WW 840.

SQUALL LINE FROM CNTRL LA SWWD ALONG THE TX COAST CONTINUES EWD AT
AROUND 30 KT. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE TX COAST.
WITH STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING REMAINING IN COOL SECTOR...THE
RESPONSE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH ONLY A MODEST
SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM
SECTOR. MOREOVER...WITH ONLY UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS RESIDING OVER THE
NRN GULF...FURTHER NWD ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. THIS SUGGESTS THE LA PORTION OF SQUALL LINE WILL ENCOUNTER
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST.

..DIAL.. 11/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...CRP...

27599743 28739524 30029330 31029199 30029137 28979284
27049705 

WWWW