[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 312051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312050 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-312245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1090
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX PANHANDLE AND NW TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 362...

VALID 312050Z - 312245Z

WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY.  MOST SEVERE STORMS ARE LOCATED SE OF THE AMA AREA
ENHANCED BY SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT/INSTABILITY ACROSS AREA.  AIR
MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPE IS
BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG.  THUS...COMBINATION OF TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT AND STRONG INSTABILITY S OF BOUNDARY INDICATES PRESENCE OF
ENHANCED LIFT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES
ARE MAIN THREAT.

MESOANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT/ASSOCIATED
DRYLINE SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH.  LATEST 18Z NAM AND RUC CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STRONG SIGNAL OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
THAT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM E CENTRAL NM INTO W TX.  RUC FCST MIDLAND
SNDG SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 45-55 KT
INDICATING AGAIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

34230477 34770476 35580475 36300472 36840476 36660418
36030238 35500123 35130001 34639998 34189998 33669999
33210002 32779998 32509999 32800075 33160175 33560288
33930383 34160459 

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