[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 312234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312233 
TXZ000-010000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 312233Z - 010000Z

PORTIONS OF WEST TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PECOS VALLEY AREAS ARE BEING
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH. TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN 1-2 HOURS.

WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AND ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KENT AND FISHER
COUNTIES SEWD TO COLEMAN...MCCULLOCH...AND SAN SABA COUNTIES. WITH
INHIBITION NEARLY ELIMINATED AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
PERSISTING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES...TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ENSUE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO. KINEMATIC PROPERTIES STRONGLY SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATING 30-40KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW
WAS APPARENTLY LIMITING STRENGTH OF 0-1KM SRH WITH ANTECEDENT
EFFECTIVE VALUES AOB 100 M2/S2. HOWEVER...VALUES NEAR THE STATIONARY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE CLOSER TO 150 M2/S2. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CAPE IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY...AND/OR PERHAPS WITH
MCS DEVELOPING SOUTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE PANHANDLE REGION.

..CARBIN.. 05/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

32910249 31620187 30670241 30549819 32849986 

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