[MCD] SWOMCD
MCD at goshenarc.org
MCD at goshenarc.org
Tue May 31 18:02:24 UTC 2005
ACUS11 KWNS 311806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311805
TXZ000-NMZ000-312000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL NM...SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND W CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 311805Z - 312000Z
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME NERN NM ON NRN FRINGE OF
INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS SSEWD THRU W TX. TORNADO WATCH COULD
BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER W
CENTRAL TX/EXTREME SERN NM. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S ARE ADVECTING NWWD ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NWD FROM
THE LOW INTO NERN NM. THIS IS ALSO WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...
RUC MODEL DATA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IS CONSISTENT IN PLACING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND INCREASING THERMAL
GRADIENT/WARN ADVECTION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEARLY
BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ESEWD S OF ABQ IN ASSOCIATION
WITH EXIT REGION OF 90-95 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CONVERGENCE OVER ERN NM NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
RUC MODEL HAS BEEN STRONGLY INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED UVVS
ON AN AXIS FROM RTN - TCC - LBB DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. RUC
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP IS MUCH WEAKER NOW WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
OF 8 TO 8.5C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55-60 KT. THIS INDICATES
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA.
..MCCARTHY.. 05/31/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
35130447 36000399 35890291 35270172 34740101 33560068
31700129 31360280 33500419 34370442
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