[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311802 
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-312000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NWRN OK...CENTRAL/E-CENTRAL KS...AND SERN
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 311802Z - 312000Z

INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL.
AREAS FROM NWRN OK INTO SERN NEB WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WW...HOWEVER...ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND MAGNITUDE OF OVERALL
THREAT MAY PRECLUDE ISSUANCE. 

AT 1745Z...LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
15W LNK TO 15E SLN TO 40E P28 CONTINUES VERY SLOW EWD ADVANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY SWWD ACROSS NWRN OK AND
INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION... WITH
100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT 17Z WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS SRN KS/NRN
OK IN ADDITION TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG ADVANCING OUTFLOW WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY LIKELY AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY NWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
INTO SERN NEB. 

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALIGN ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SEVERE CELLS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20-25KT RANGE ALONG THIS
AXIS PER REGIONAL WIND PROFILER OBSERVATIONS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
NUMBER OF INTENSE STORMS...HOWEVER...A FEW WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL.

..BANACOS.. 05/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

37329827 38089803 40169736 41569714 41339659 40959634
40239599 39669583 38879586 38059604 37369630 37099649
36879670 36599679 36369694 36009760 35689802 35499914
35539980 35880018 36140006 36329962 36549905 36879852 

WWWW