[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311033 
TXZ000-311200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361...

VALID 311033Z - 311200Z

SEVERE HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY IN
WW...HOWEVER GENERAL/GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNRISE.  PRIND WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 12Z.

SERIES OF THREE PRIMARY STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUES MOVING SEWD
ACROSS WW AREA.  INITIAL STORM -- MOVING TOWARD NRN BORDEN/WRN
SCURRY COUNTY...REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL BUT APPEARS TO BE
STRUGGLING WITH INCREASING CINH WITH SEWD EXTENT ACROSS W-CENTRAL
TX.  NEXT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER LBB COUNTY WILL MOVE SEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS NRN LYNN/CROSBY/SWRN GARZA COUNTIES THROUGH
12Z...WITH MAIN THREAT LARGE HAIL.  1.25 INCH HAIL REPORTED DURING
PAST HOUR WITH MIDDLE STORM...AS IT WAS TRANSITIONING FROM SUPERCELL
TO SMALL BOW ECHO OVER HOCKLEY COUNTY. ALTHOUGH A FEW ASSOCIATED
GUSTS MAY APCH SEVERE LIMITS...PRIND WIND POTENTIAL IS SUPPRESSED BY
NEAR-SFC STABILITY...PER SUBSEVERE WINDS IN AVAILABLE DATA FROM 3
MESONET STATIONS OVER WHICH STORM HAS PASSED.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING OVER COMBINATION OF RADIATIONALLY STABILIZING
NEAR-SFC LAYER AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.  ACTIVITY
FARTHER NW OVER LAMB COUNTY MAY FOLLOW SIMILAR PATH BUT SHOULD BE
EVEN MORE ELEVATED...GIVEN ITS TRACK OVER FRESHLY DEEPENED OUTFLOW
POOL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32660061 32660302 34730295 34740050 

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