[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 311806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311805 
TXZ000-NMZ000-312000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL NM...SWRN TX PANHANDLE AND W CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 311805Z - 312000Z

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME NERN NM ON NRN FRINGE OF
INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS SSEWD THRU W TX. TORNADO WATCH COULD
BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER W
CENTRAL TX/EXTREME SERN NM.  SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO
MID 60S ARE ADVECTING NWWD ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NWD FROM
THE LOW INTO NERN NM.  THIS IS ALSO WHERE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG.  IN ADDITION...
RUC MODEL DATA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IS CONSISTENT IN PLACING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND INCREASING THERMAL
GRADIENT/WARN ADVECTION.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEARLY
BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ESEWD S OF ABQ IN ASSOCIATION
WITH EXIT REGION OF 90-95 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.  STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CONVERGENCE OVER ERN NM NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

RUC MODEL HAS BEEN STRONGLY INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED UVVS
ON AN AXIS FROM RTN - TCC - LBB DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  RUC
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP IS MUCH WEAKER NOW WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
OF 8 TO 8.5C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 55-60 KT.  THIS INDICATES
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THIS AREA.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

35130447 36000399 35890291 35270172 34740101 33560068
31700129 31360280 33500419 34370442 

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