[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 310826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310826 
FLZ000-311100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FL W COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 310826Z - 311100Z

NUMEROUS TSTMS OFFSHORE FL W COAST ARE FCST TO MOVE INLAND GENERALLY
FROM FMY-CTY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR.
VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS...HOWEVER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE THREAT
INTENSE/ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO WARRANT WW.

ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER ERN GULF N ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND OPTIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS WRN GULF.  GREATEST CAPE ACTUALLY IS INDICATED BEHIND
THIS ACTIVITY -- OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LOOP CURRENT WHERE
AIR-SEA EQUILIBRIUM MAXIMIZES BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE. 
HOWEVER...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY
UNTIL IT MOVES ONSHORE...WHERE SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F
REMAIN COMMON. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPES APCHG 2000
J/KG ALONG COASTLINE...DROPPING MARKEDLY TO UNDER 1000 J/KG INLAND
WHERE SFC DIABATIC COOLING HAS STABILIZED AIR MASS.  ALTHOUGH
LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK...TBW VWP SHOWS
OFFSHORE/LAND-BREEZE FLOW HELPING TO ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. 
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THAT BACKED FLOW AND ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR GROUND
LEVEL MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE TO ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND...STORMS
INTERACTING WITH LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY. 
LEWPS/BOW FORMATIONS AND TRANSIENT/RELATIVELY WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MIGHT OCCUR ALONG COASTLINE. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND.

OVERALL...GREATEST HAZARD MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WOULD EXTEND
FARTHER INLAND THAN ANY MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.  ENVIRONMENT IS
VERY MOIST THROUGH LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE...WITH 1.75-2 INCH PW
EVIDENT.  CELL MERGERS AND ECHO TRAINING WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL LOCALLY.

..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...TAE...

29358318 29388303 29248285 29058264 28838247 28648246
28318259 28108256 27968241 27678238 27408242 27178228
26898196 26618187 26358183 26318201 26478227 26938269
27798301 28338313 29148328 

WWWW