[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 300655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300655 
TXZ000-300830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354...

VALID 300655Z - 300830Z

PRIMARY MULTICELL CLUSTER IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS WILLACY/EXTREME
SRN KENEDY/ERN HIDALGO COUNTIES AS OF 645Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH ITS OWN OUTFLOW HAS SURGED AHEAD OF MOST
REFLECTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BASE VELOCITY DATA
SHOWS LOW LEVEL WINDS AOA 50 KT.  THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE PADRE ISLAND -- MAINLY OVER AND S OF MANSFIELD CUT --
WHILE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH CAMERON AND SERN
HIDALGO COUNTIES.  VERY NARROW AREA OF 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE --
ROOTED JUST ABOVE SFC -- MAY AID DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER CAMERON COUNTY BEFORE BOUNDARY MOVES PAST BRO.

CONVECTION FARTHER W OVER SERN STARR/WRN HIDALGO COUNTY -- AS WELL
AS ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W IN MEX -- MAY PRODUCE HAIL
AS IT MOVES OVER OUTFLOW POOL...GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
2000-3000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE POSSIBLE ABOVE RESULTANT STABLE
LAYER. HOWEVER...WIND THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED.  ONCE OUTFLOW
MOVES S OF RIO GRANDE...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD WEAKEN. 
GIVEN EXPECTED DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS AFTER ABOUT 8Z...WW MAY
BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION.

..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

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