[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 300900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300859 
NCZ000-SCZ000-301100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 300859Z - 301100Z

ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN VRY NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN
BAMBERG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES SC...BEFORE 11Z.  WW IS NOT EXPECTED
ATTM BECAUSE OF ISOLATED POTENTIAL COVERAGE AND SMALL AREA INVOLVED.


TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN CAE AND
BARNWELL COUNTY AS OF 845Z.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD
PRIMARILY N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED ENE-WSW ACROSS REGION.
 SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR NC TO ABOUT 20 SSW
MYR...20 N CHS...VDI...40 NNW TLH.  BAROCLINIC GRADIENT IS STRONG
WITH THIS FEATURE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR
ACTIVITY MOVING ATOP  COOL/RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ITS
N.  ANY TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG/S OF FRONT AND INTERACT WITH IT
MAY HAVE BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE RISK BEFORE MOVING ATOP STABLE
LAYER...GIVEN ENHANCED SHEAR APPARENT ALONG FRONT AND NEARLY
SFC-BASED BUOYANCY TO ITS S.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 500-1000
J/KG SBCAPE WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN 70S F -- ACROSS SC COASTAL
PLAIN S OF FRONT.  AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE MARGINAL WITH
30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...HOWEVER HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BE ENLARGED
ENOUGH ALONG BOUNDARY FOR AROUND 150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

33258137 33558054 33687972 33897857 33637840 33167907
33138012 32908099 

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