[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 300634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300633 
LAZ000-TXZ000-300800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353...

VALID 300633Z - 300800Z

CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WW ALONG/AHEAD OF SECONDARY TSTM
LINE...EXTENDING FROM CALCASIEU PARISH SWD INTO GULF AS OF 0615Z. 
ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE...MAIN THREAT IS WITH TSTMS FARTHER ENE.
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL CONTINUES...PARTICULARLY WITH PORTIONS OF
LEADING BOW ECHO STILL ACCESSING NEARLY SFC-BASED INFLOW AS IT MOVES
INTO ST LANDRY/LAFAYETTE/ST MARTIN PARISHES.  THEREAFTER...MUCH OF
THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO ENTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED INFLOW
PARCELS WITH WEAKENING BUOYANCY...INDICATING LIKELIHOOD OF
DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT AS ACTIVITY APCHS SWRN CORNER MS. 
VWP/PROFILER AND RUC WIND DATA INDICATE WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WITH NWD EXTENT AS WELL.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SERN TERREBONNE PARISH
NWWD ACROSS ST LANDRY...WHERE IT IS OVERTAKEN BY LEADING TSTM
COMPLEX.  AIR MASS S AND SW OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS
CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...WITH MODIFIED 00Z LCH RAOB AND
RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPES GENERALLY WITHIN 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE.
 THIS REGION -- LARGELY S OF BTR AND E OF WW -- WILL BE MONITORED
FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE WW.

..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

29129476 30439473 30969168 30689142 30319115 29989076
29739043 29569022 29209022 29039048 29019080 29129113
29439153 29649167 29229420 

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