[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290912 
TXZ000-291115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MID/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN AND ADJACENT
WATERS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...

VALID 290912Z - 291115Z

AS OF 9Z...APEX OF BROADLY ARCHING BOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD
APPROXIMATELY 35 KT TOWARD GLS AREA.  SOME WEAKENING TREND EVIDENT
IN REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS...AND WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED IF THESE TENDENCIES CONTINUE.

EXPECT ANY REMAINING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS MAINLY S OF
I-10...ACROSS PORTIONS BRAZORIA/FT BEND/SRN
HARRIS/GALVESTON/CHAMBERS COUNTIES...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
FREEPORT AREA TO HIGH ISLAND.  AIR MASS IN INFLOW REGION CONTINUES
TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY VERY FAVORABLE MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC DEW
POINTS LOW-MID 70S F AND 850 MB DEW POINTS IN 11-15 DEG C RANGE --
CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG.  VWP DATA FROM HGX
INDICATES ENOUGH LOW LEVEL VEERING TO SUPPORT 200-300 J/KG 0-3 KM
SRH...ALTHOUGH LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTIVE FORCING SHOULD MINIMIZE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND MAINTAIN BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES. 
HOWEVER...STRONG CINH REMAINS OVER REGION AND FORCING MAY NOT REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH ALONG OUTFLOW EDGE TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR NEARLY
SFC-BASED CONVECTION.

..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

27909680 29949680 30979446 28979448 

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