[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290557
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290557 
TXZ000-290730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL...SE AND DEEP S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345...

VALID 290557Z - 290730Z

TWO BOW-SHAPED MCS ARE MERGING ACROSS WW 345 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS S TX...AFFECTING AREAS ALONG I-10 EWD
TOWARD HOU...AND FROM MID TX COAST AS FAR N AS CLL.  MAIN THREAT
REMAINS OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS.  SRN BOW IS CATCHING UP WITH
LONGITUDINAL POSITION OF NORTHERN ONE...AND COMBINED MCS MAY EXIT WW
AS EARLY AS AROUND 730Z.  ADDITIONAL WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR
PORTIONS MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND SE TX.

CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED SUBSEVERE GUSTS OF UNDER 50 KT WHILE PASSING
ACROSS OBSERVATION SITES AROUND...S AND SW OF SAT...HOWEVER SMALL
POCKETS OF LOCALLY ENHANCED SFC WINDS STILL MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
MINOR DAMAGE.  FOREGOING AIR MASS IS FAVORABLY MOIST WITH SFC DEW
POINTS AROUND 70 DEG F ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC
ZONE -- ANALYZED ROUGHLY E-W THROUGH CLL TO ABOUT 20 N LCH. 
ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED CRP/LCH RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MUCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG BUT ALSO CONSIDERABLE CINH OF OVER 100 J/KG. 
THIS INDICATES STRONG FORCING ALONG OUTFLOW EDGE AND RESULTANT
FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL BE NECESSARY TO SUSTAIN TSTMS AS THEY APCH
SE TX. LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY ARE SLIGHTLY LARGER ACROSS DEEP S
TX...BUT WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL FORCING.  STILL...ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL THREAT EXISTS WITH ACTIVITY S OF WW 345 AND SE
LRD...MOVING EWD ACROSS LOWER TX COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD CRP AREA AND
NRN PADRE ISLAND.

..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...

29529439 28899531 28339638 27899693 27369728 27029736
26669804 26579916 26839930 26919939 27069947 27139932
27289917 27549916 27709914 27959869 27989892 30769832
30759663 30709441 30649400 

WWWW