[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291238 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-291445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291238Z - 291445Z

MCS REMAINS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS SRN LA MAY INTENSIFY AGAIN DURING
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WIND DAMAGE THREAT FROM BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS. 
ALSO...MORE DISCRETE STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH 15Z
ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN LA AND EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN
MS...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IS DECELERATING AS IT MOVES SWD
ACROSS TIER OF MS COUNTIES FROM AMITE EWD THROUGH MCB AREA TO GREENE
COUNTY.  BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY FARTHER W ACROSS CENTRAL
LA TO NEAR BEAUREGARD/VERNON PARISH LINE.  ALTHOUGH TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP IN MOIST SECTOR ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM SRN MS ACROSS SRN
LA...SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN NEAR TERM MAY BE MAXIMIZED WITH
ACTIVITY INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY...SHEAR
AND CONVERGENCE ARE GREATEST.  AMBIENT SHEAR S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND
E OF CONVECTION OVER WRN LA IS RELATIVELY WEAK BASED ON VWP/RAOB
DATA FROM LCH/SIL.  HOWEVER...SBCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY MID-MORNING...SUPPORTED BY SFC DEW POINTS NEAR
70 DEG F AND INLAND TEMPS RISING PAST 80 DEG F WITH STRONG
INSOLATION.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN
LA...AHEAD OF TROUGH NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY...EJECTING NEWD FROM MEX OVER DEEP S TX.

..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29559319 30279323 30779324 30969314 31159266 31529052
31608904 31548859 31368840 30908837 30578849 29978947
29419103 29249234 

WWWW