[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290325 
LAZ000-TXZ000-290500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LA...FAR EAST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 342...

VALID 290325Z - 290500Z

A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL LA OVER THE
NEXT 1-3 HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS IN THE LINE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EAST TO WEST FROM THE NRN TX HILL COUNTRY INTO CNTRL LA
AND ACROSS SRN MS. A CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR THE BOUNDARY IS MOVING EWD
ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PRESENT
WITH THE LINE AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LINE IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND AS THE LINE MOVES EAST OF WW
342...DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND A STRENGTHENING CAPPING
INVERSION MAY CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND WITH THE LINE.

..BROYLES.. 05/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

30839346 31309380 32149368 32139252 31729217 31119231
30889257 

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