[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290308 
TXZ000-290445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO SCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343...344...

VALID 290308Z - 290445Z

SEVERAL CONVECTIVE LINES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND
SCNTRL TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO
WEST ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S F WHICH ARE RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY. THIS WILL AID MCS DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES EWD ACROSS SOUTH TX
SHOWN BY THE RUC. ALTHOUGH...500 MB TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY
WARM...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 40 KT. THIS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN A HAIL THREAT WITH THE LINES
GRADUALLY MOVING EWD OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TX COASTAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. CELLS WILL BECOME ELEVATED AND THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT MAY BECOME INCREASING ISOLATED DUE TO AN CAPPING INVERSION
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 05/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

28369937 30589879 31499844 31889765 31279697 28409818 

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