[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290147 
KSZ000-290245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0847 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341...

VALID 290147Z - 290245Z

REMAINING PORTIONS OF WW 341 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO WATCH
EXPIRATION TIME /03Z/.

RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN OR REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN STRENGTH...DESPITE A SLOW
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET NOTED ON REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA.
MODIFIED 00Z DDC SOUNDING FOR OBSERVATIONS AT LIBERAL AND ELKHART
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SWRN PORTION OF WW 341 INDICATES
MARGINAL MUCAPES AROUND 800 J/KG. COMBINED WITH THE EFFECTS OF AN
INVERSION PRESENT ON BOTH THE DDC AND AMA SOUNDINGS AROUND 700
MB...OVERALL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER APPEARS TO HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AND REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 341 WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

..CROSBIE.. 05/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...

37930091 37580145 37390195 37040201 37050129 37049993
37830007 

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