[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290119 
TXZ000-290245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 290119Z - 290245Z

CELLS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS SCNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC PRESSURE TROUGH AND AXIS OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDING NNEWD ACROSS SCNTRL TX WITH MLCAPE VALUES
ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC
PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTION AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER THE
NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING FOR SCNTRL TX
SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY LATE
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.

..BROYLES.. 05/29/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

28250014 29170078 29740061 30299963 30119837 28959805 

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