[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 282342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282341 
TXZ000-290145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 282341Z - 290145Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 10N TPL TO 10N JCT. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE NEAR DRT MAY IMPACT PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGION IS
BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. 

ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR SJT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EWD AT
30-35KT AND AWAY FROM QUASI-STATIONARY MCV NEAR THE TX/SERN NM
BORDER. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FASTER PROPAGATION OF THIS LINE ALONG
E-W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THIS AXIS OF
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT ALSO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF FORWARD PROPAGATION OF EXISTING
CONVECTIVE LINE CAN INCREASE. SOME TOWERING CU HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG
REMAINDER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING IS WEAK
AND IS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTIVE STORMS. 

MEANWHILE...MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG EXIST ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTIVE STORMS SPREADING EWD OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO. A FEW OF THESE STRONGER CELLS MAY
PERSIST INTO THE U.S. WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

..BANACOS.. 05/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

29750212 30240121 30910053 31580054 32240031 32439979
32009922 31689868 31539775 31129673 30789738 30249804
29069888 28509929 28239978 28340031 29110076 29470134 

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