[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281841 
COZ000-NMZ000-282045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO AND NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281841Z - 282045Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NERN NM
AND ERN CO DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. PRIMARY THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. WW WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 

AT 1830Z...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS LESSENING RAPIDLY ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE EWD ACROSS SERN CO. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
BE DEVELOPING FROM NEAR DEN TO LIC TO IML...WHICH APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSING TOWERING CU AND INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN LATEST VIS
IMAGERY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM
40SW DEN SWD INTO FAR NRN NM WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. 

INSOLATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE. SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ENHANCE SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NERN NM NWD TO ALONG THE PALMER RIDGE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS GENERALLY 35-45KT...AND SHOULD
SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. RATHER LARGE SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS.  HIGH CLOUD BASES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES...HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF DEEPENING
SURFACE CYCLONE.

..BANACOS.. 05/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

38780497 39750481 39770408 40270301 40330248 40080223
37790219 36180387 36030536 

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