[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281734 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-281930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS...S-CENTRAL NEB...AND NERN/ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 281734Z - 281930Z

ONGOING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NWRN KS WWD INTO NERN/ERN CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WW MAY BE NEEDED. 

AT 17Z...NRN FRINGE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AS INFERRED
FROM GLD VAD WIND PROFILE...IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN KS...AND ALONG A NW-SE
LINE FROM 30S LBF TO 10S CNK. THIS AREA IS ALSO LOCATED ON SWRN
PERIPHERY OF UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WHERE
A MODERATE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EXISTS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/ ALONG WITH
EFFECTIVE 6KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT
OF LONG-LIVED CELLS AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NEAR THE
KS/S-CENTRAL NEB BORDER. IN THE SHORT-TERM...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NWRN KS INTO ERN CO THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING LESSENS
SURFACE-BASED CIN. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED FROM ONGOING
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL
LIFT AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

..BANACOS.. 05/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

38950004 38880118 38660225 38620311 38570380 38660428
39060444 39240448 39550447 39930419 40200383 40580314
40800257 41000111 40749948 40459835 39809677 39439642
38979634 38799671 38909742 39029852 

WWWW