[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 282057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282057 
TXZ000-282300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 282057Z - 282300Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL TX...NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
MCS. PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERSECTION 40E ACT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROVIDING TROPICAL AIR
AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS INTO THIS REGION...WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT
LIKELY ENHANCED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AIR MASS IN THIS AREA
WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH 100MB
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT
SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED CELLS. ONE
MITIGATING FACTOR IS MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN BY RUC TO
BE IN THE 6-6.5 C/KM RANGE. THIS MAY LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY WITH
MOST OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. STRONGER CORES MAY CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL AND SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS PROVIDED INFLOW CONTINUES TO TAP
TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE SOUTH.

..BANACOS.. 05/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

30939845 31449778 32089713 32229634 32229560 31689516
31059498 30449535 30339573 30499650 30499715 30349779
30299837 30659867 

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