[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280700 
TXZ000-NMZ000-280900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SOUTH PLAINS OF W TX...SMALL PART OF SERN
NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 280700Z - 280900Z

HEAVY RAIN RATES 1.5-2.5 INCHES/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 9Z
IN AREA FROM EXTREME NRN LEA COUNTY NM EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
COCHRAN/LYNN/HOCKLEY/TERRY/YOAKUM/LUBBOCK COUNTIES IN TX.  ISOLATED
HIGHER RATES BRIEFLY ARE POSSIBLE IN MERGING CELLS AND MOST INTENSE
CORES.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY TSTMS IS MOVING SEWD 15-20 KT ACROSS
CASTRO/LAMB/NRN COCHRAN/EXTREME SERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES AS OF
645Z...AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD INTO DISCUSSION AREA. 
QUASISTATIONARY BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EVIDENT FROM LYNN
COUNTY WWD TO NRN LEA COUNTY...WHERE IT BLENDS WITH N-S ORIENTED
BAND OF TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF LEA COUNTY.  IN BETWEEN...SFC
MESOANALYSIS - INCLUDING W TX MESONET DATA -- SHOWS CONFLUENCE LINE
EXTENDING FROM NRN KENT COUNTY WNWWD ACROSS SRN LBB COUNTY...WWD
INTO EXTREME NRN LEA COUNTY.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MERGE WITH
CONFLUENCE LINE AND NRN PORTION OF E-W CONVECTIVE BAND FROM LBB AREA
WWD...WHERE GREATEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. MODIFIED MAF
RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH RH THROUGH MOST OF TROPOSPHERE...
CONTRIBUTING TO PW 1.25-1.5 INCH.  VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS LOW LEVEL
WAA PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK BUT VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT. 
THIS AREA ALSO IS INVOF WEAK...SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER WIND TRENDS AND 00Z RAOB ANALYSES
FROM NEAR PVW SWWD TOWARD ELP. ASSOCIATED WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT
MAY COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WAA TO CONTRIBUTE TO
ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG.

..EDWARDS.. 05/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

33240150 33130217 33120295 33240346 33650314 33930271
33930210 33870175 

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