[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280625 
TXZ000-280930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 280625Z - 280930Z

AT LEAST TWO SLOW MOVING BANDS OF TSTMS -- INCLUDING MERGING CELLS
-- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z IN FAVORABLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES WILL
BE COMMON...WITH A FEW LOCALIZED RATES TOPPING 3 INCHES/HOUR IN MOST
INTENSE CORES OR AREAS WHERE CELLS MERGE INTO MAIN LINES.

6Z SFC AND RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM BWD AREA TO
MASON COUNTY AND FROM NEAR SJT SWD TO JUST W DRT...THEN SWD ACROSS
BORDER TO APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WNW LRD...IN COAHUILA.  THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES EWD 15-25 KT ACROSS AREA FROM
DIMMIT/MAVERICK/KINNEY/VAL VERDE COUNTIES NNEWD OVER HILL COUNTRY. 
FORWARD PROPAGATION WILL FORCE ADDITIONAL CELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
LEADING EDGE...WHILE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO
THE E IS ABSORBED INTO MAIN TSTM LINES.  

VWP AT DRT SHOWS 30 KT 850 MB LLJ FROM SE...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER
SPEEDS AND MORE VEERED FLOW FARTHER SE AND NE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TX.
 THIS YIELDS OPTIMAL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW FOR ACTIVITY MOVING
THROUGH AREA BETWEEN JCT-ERV-DRT...INCLUDING SRN EDGE OF HILL
COUNTRY ALONG BALCONES ENSCARPMENT.  PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS 13-15 DEG C
AND 1.5-1.75 INCH PW...CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG.  NRN BAND WILL HAVE MORE SPORADIC AND MARGINALLY HEAVY RAIN
RATES WITH WEAKER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...BUT IS ENTERING
OCCASIONALLY RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN HILL COUNTRY.

..EDWARDS.. 05/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

29280096 30160103 30620086 30800044 30809965 31189917
31829891 31939834 31649779 31319779 30789786 30239804
29759849 29499927 29279959 28179984 28090008 28280029
28540034 28810055 28910062 29130070 29170077 

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