[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281708 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-281845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...OH...NRN WV PNHDL AND EXTREME WRN PA

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 281708Z - 281845Z

ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN.
A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NEXT IN SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WAS MOVING THROUGH LOWER MI
AND IND PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS AT MID-DAY...EMBEDDED IN MODEST WLY
FLOW REGIME.  THOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN WEAK...LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  

LARGELY ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS WRN OH ATTM MAY ROOT
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AS DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
WARM.  THUS...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME AN ADDED THREAT TO
HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF THE SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS BECOME FAVORABLY
ALIGNED WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME.  

ATTM...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  UPDRAFTS WILL TEND TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AND THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLD GIVEN THE WEAK THERMAL
BUOYANCY.

..RACY.. 05/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

38968384 40528410 41198359 41598292 41788069 40957994
40138040 39878087 39168235 

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