[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280108 
TXZ000-NMZ000-280245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0808 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338...

VALID 280108Z - 280245Z

A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS ERN AND CNTRL NM OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MCS PRESENT
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID TO UPPER 50S F
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF NM WHERE SBCAPE VALUES REMAIN
ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
EVENING SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KT WHICH COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE MULTICELL THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A
COLD POOL CAN GENERATE. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED...A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DECREASE AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES LATE THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 05/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

34840606 33580617 33210488 33680351 35680291 35950367
35650472 35390542 

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