[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271830 
NMZ000-AZZ000-272100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MOGOLLON RIM...SERN AZ/SWRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 271830Z - 272100Z

TSTMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE ERN MOGOLLON RIM AND THE SERN AZ/SWRN
NM MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN.  ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SSWWD AND THERE WILL BE
RISKS OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER.

ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT ADVECTED SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES WWD BEYOND THE NM DIVIDE AND INTO SERN AZ AND SWRN NM.  AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT CONSIDERABLY ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY THIS AFTN. A PARCEL CHARACTERIZED BY
93/48F TEMP/DEW POINT RESPECTIVELY...RESULTS IN A 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE ON THE 12Z TUCSON SOUNDING.  SEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY
AND DIVERGENT/DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME SEEM TO POINT TOWARD AN
UPSWING IN TSTM POTENTIAL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF AFTNS.  

THE TUCSON VWP IS STILL SHOWING 30 KTS OF FLOW AT H5 AND STRONGER
UPDRAFTS SHOULD MOVE SSWWD OFF THE RIM/HIGHER TERRAIN. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR.
 ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS EAST
OF THE BAJA DISTURBANCE... IF ANY TRAINING CAN OCCUR...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT...MAINLY ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER. 
HERE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER AND STORM MOTION COULD
BE SLOWER.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LESS THAN FARTHER N-E IN NM AND A WW OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

..RACY.. 05/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

31311107 32021076 32481087 33501092 34571046 34430898
34330818 34020733 33200725 32500758 32160797 31390867 

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