[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271752 
NMZ000-271945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/CNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271752Z - 271945Z

TSTMS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  

VSBL SATELLITE AND WEBCAMS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NCNTRL AND SAN MATEO/ZUNI MOUNTAIN RANGES.  THE CONVECTION
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE SUBSTANTIAL TSTMS BY EARLY-MID AFTN. 

RECENT BACKDOOR FRONTS/TSTM EPISODES HAVE ADVECTED HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WWD TO THE DIVIDE IN RECENT NIGHTS WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS AOA 45F.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL BE
SEASONALLY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION AND LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG TSTMS. 
MOREOVER...ENHANCED H5 FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH WAS CONTRIBUTING TO VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS.  RISKS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SSEWD ACROSS
CNTRL NM DURING THE LATE AFTN HOURS. IF ACTIVITY ACROSS NCNTRL/CNTRL
NM CAN BECOME ORGANIZED...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTN.

FARTHER EAST...STRATOCUMULUS ON THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL
PROBABLY MITIGATE HEATING. THE CAP SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
HERE TO KEEP THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT RELEGATED TO FARTHER WEST.

..RACY.. 05/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

35590511 34050568 34000694 34900806 35430815 36070695
36950628 36830527 

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