[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271732 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-271930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL...IND...FAR NRN KY...AND MUCH OF OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271732Z - 271930Z

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BEING MONITORED IN SEVERAL AREAS INCLUDING
N-CENTRAL OH...CENTRAL/SWRN IND...AND N-CENTRAL IL. POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED IN LINES.

AT 1715Z...BROAD REGION OF MODERATELY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL
DEEP-LAYER FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS BELT OF STRONG
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS OCCURRED SOUTH OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND
COOL UPPER LOW ACROSS NRN MN INTO NWRN ONTARIO/SERN MANITOBA.
SFC-6KM SHEAR RANGES FROM 35-45 KTS ACROSS IL...IND...AND OH.

DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM
NRN MO TO WRN PA. HOWEVER...LACK OF FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
DEEP WLY FLOW REGIME AND LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S/...IS COMPLICATING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. ONE VORT MAX EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH ERN IA
AT 17Z MAY ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION AND THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS N-CENTRAL IL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
BEGINNING ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN IND. LASTLY...TOWERING CU ARE BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS N-CENTRAL OH. WITH POTENTIAL FOR FAST-MOVING
STORM CLUSTERS/CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND EMBEDDED LONG-LIVED
CELLS...EACH OF THESE THREAT AREAS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS FOR INCREASED INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION. DESPITE LOW
SBCAPE /GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG/...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...FAST STORM MOTIONS...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
WILL SUSTAIN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SUFFICIENTLY COOLS AFTER SUNSET.

..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

40779009 41908976 41898836 41678700 41418336 41528176
41808064 40378066 39848131 39228242 38988349 38758447
38578571 38418669 38688766 38888855 40098959 

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