[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271605 
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-271800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PA...WRN NJ...AND S-CENTRAL NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271605Z - 271800Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z
ACROSS CENTRAL PA/S-CENTRAL NY WITH CELL MOVEMENT GENERALLY ENEWD AT
30-40 KT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...IF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS CAN DEVELOP. AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

AT 1545Z...INCREASE IN TOWERING CU WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY
ACROSS N-CENTRAL PA AND FAR S-CENTRAL NY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE 70S. AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
COLOCATED WITH A COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT MAX. ADDITIONALLY...RUC
SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING AND LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NERN PA/S-CENTRAL
NY INTO WRN NJ THROUGH 21Z. THESE FACTORS SHOULD SUSTAIN UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. 

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL KEEP
INSTABILITY WEAK...WITH MUCAPE VALUES ONLY 500-1000 J/KG DURING MAX
HEATING. HOWEVER...UNSEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN 850-500MB LAPSE RATES OF
7.5-8 C/KM. LIKEWISE...INSOLATION IS LEADING TO STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40KT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
LONG-LIVED CELLS...WITH STRONGER CORES PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. IF
STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE BANDS... RELATIVELY FAST STORM
MOTIONS AND MODERATE DCAPE VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED AREAS OF
DAMAGING WIND. ORGANIZATION TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..BANACOS.. 05/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

40097686 40127751 40397819 40967857 41867855 42347798
42447682 42397587 42177497 41897449 40957446 40387464
40187521 40157587 

WWWW