[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260446 
TXZ000-NMZ000-260615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX...WEST TX AND SE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 334...

VALID 260446Z - 260615Z

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ACROSS SE NM...PARTS OF WEST TX AND ACROSS CNTRL TX.
HAIL...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 334 AND A
NEW WW 335 HAS BE ISSUED WEST OF WW 334 WITHIN THE HOUR.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE MIDLAND
AREA TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THE RUC ANALYSIS IS
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING WEST TX AND THIS MAY BE
INCREASING ASCENT OVER A LARGE AREA. AS A RESULT...STORM COVERAGE
MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LARGE MCS
ORGANIZES ACROSS WEST TX. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION WILL
RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO
1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 05/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

32660214 32360016 32489808 32309744 31739725 31339747
31139804 30890055 31350295 32160463 32840473 33330427
33230367 

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