[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260114 
TXZ000-260245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0814 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE AND ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333...

VALID 260114Z - 260245Z

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS NE
AND EAST TX THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
ERN PART OF WW 333.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SEWD FROM NEAR ABILENE TO NEAR HUNTSVILLE TX. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LIFT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED BY THE
RUC OVER NE TX...IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS THE CELLS
SPREAD SEWD ACROSS EAST TX...MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS EAST TX
OVER THE 2 TO 4 HOURS. IF THE CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE THIS
EVENING...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEPER TO THE WEST...INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY GREATER IN EAST TX
WHERE ENHANCED VERTICAL ASCENT IS PRESENT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
SEVERE THREAT GOING ACROSS THE ERN PART OF WW 333 THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 05/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...

30679700 31989832 32469860 33079804 33059712 31249559
30779575 30479632 30419674