[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250504 
NEZ000-250700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1000
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN THROUGH CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 250504Z - 250700Z

LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL NEB WITH
CONVECTION NOW MOVING ESEWD 35-40 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN NEB
COUNTIES SHERIDAN/BOX BUTTE/DAWES/SIOUX.  ELEVATED SUPERCELL AND/OR
BOW STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED.

ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN ZONE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
ERN MT AND N-CENTRAL/NERN WY.  SFC TEMPS ARE IN 50S OVER REGION WITH
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FCST TO CONTINUE.  THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE...THOUGH A FEW STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS MAY
PENETRATE TO SFC.  HOWEVER...ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE AMIDST STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR...SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL RISK.  USING LIFTED PARCEL ROOTED NEAR
700 MB YIELDS 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...BASED ON COMBINATION OF
PROFILER/VWP WINDS AND RUC FCST SOUNDING.

..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

42910398 42960315 42790215 42610115 42189990 41819943
41439956 41270001 41210061 41410145 41740244 42170328
42510396 

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