[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250328 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-250530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL KS...OK PANHANDLE...NERN TX
PANHANDLE...NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327...

VALID 250328Z - 250530Z

ARC OF SEVERE TSTMS -- WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL
HAIL -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS WRN KS. BOWS WITHIN LARGER
MCS WILL BE FOCI FOR ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.  SRN PORTION OF
THIS ACTIVITY...AND/OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF OK PANHANDLE AND NERN TX PANHANDLES...AND ANOTHER WW MAY
BE REQUIRED FROM THERE INTO PORTIONS NWRN OK/S-CENTRAL KS BEFORE
THIS ONE EXPIRES.

MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF LOW LEVEL
MOIST AXIS -- ANALYZED ON SFC...925 AND 850 MB CHARTS FROM NEAR DDC
ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK.  PRONOUNCED MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT ON
925/850 MB ANALYSES OVER CENTRAL KS.  LITTLE NWD MOIST ADVECTION
LIKELY AT THOSE LEVELS...SINCE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY PARALLEL TO
MOISTURE GRADIENT.  THEREFORE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE SMALLER OVER
N-CENTRAL KS THAN AREAS FARTHER S AND SW.  THIS FITS CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS INDICATED BY REFLECTIVITY DECREASE OVER NRN
PORTION OF COMPLEX.  STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG
AND JUST S OF MOISTURE GRADIENT...FAVORING FORWARD PROPAGATION ON
LEADING EDGE OF CONSIDERABLE COLD POOL THAT HAS EVOLVED TO THE REAR
OF THIS ACTIVITY.  AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS SWATH OF SWRN KS AND
ERN OK PANHANDLE SE OF BOW...LOCATED IN HAMILTON COUNTY KS AT 330Z. 
ADDITIONAL BOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG INFLECTION POINT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY  AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SEWD.

..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

36830287 39000287 39939798 37759798 36840280 37759799
37389800 36869809 36219863 36009972 36110055 36580201 

WWWW