[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250012 
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323...

VALID 250012Z - 250145Z

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE NWWD
ACROSS LAA AREA TOWARD EL PASO COUNTY. S OF FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER
IS MORE DEEPLY HEATED/MIXED...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEPLY
MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IN AREAS NOT ALREADY
MODIFIED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL WITH MORE DISCRETE SERN CO
STORMS AS WELL.  WW CLEARANCE WILL DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
OUTFLOW POOLS TO STABILIZE AIR MASS OVER SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF
WW...A PROCESS THAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE ABOUT THE TIME WW IS SCHEDULED
TO EXPIRE AROUND 02Z.  THERFORE...BULK OF WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
UNTIL EXPIRATION.

SRN END OF LARGE MCS -- MOVING SEWD FROM NERN CO INTO WW 326 -- WILL
CONTINUE TO CROSS CHEYENNE COUNTY CO.  THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDES
APPARENT HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL THAT SHOULD PRODUCE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL/WIND AS IT MOVES OVER ERN CHEYENNE COUNTY BEFORE 01Z.  OTHER
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- EVIDENT FROM SERN EL PASO COUNTY SSEWD
TOWARD NERN CORNER OF NM AND EWD TOWARD SRN END OF MCS -- MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS EL PASO/LINCOLN/CHEYENNE COUNTIES AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM NERN CO COMPLEX CONTINUES MOVING SWD ACROSS THAT AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 05/25/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

36980199 36970495 39140505 39150209 

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