[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242313 
IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0993
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN SD...N-CENTRAL/NERN
NEB...CENTRAL/SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324...

VALID 242313Z - 250115Z

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT FROM CHARLES MIX COUNTY SD
SWWD ACROSS ANW AREA THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE SWWD INTO LARGE TSTM
COMPLEX OVER NERN CO.  FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING EWD. 
POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ALONG FRONT.
 VIS IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL BILLOWS OVER AREA...INDICATING BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS REMAINS STABLY STRATIFIED.  ALSO...ANVIL CANOPY FROM
LARGE NERN CO TSTM COMPLEX WILL SPREAD OVER AREA AND SIGNIFICANTLY
INHIBIT FURTHER HEATING ALONG FRONT.  SOME CLEARANCE OF WW MAY BE
NEEDED INVOF FRONT IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS IF THESE TRENDS DO NOT
REVERSE.

PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONVERGENCE LINE --
ANALYZED AT 2230Z FROM UNION COUNTY SD SWWD TO NEAR HDE.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH ANY ACTIVITY MOVING MORE THAN 20-30
NM EWD FROM THIS LINE INTO RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER. 
MOIST AXIS -- CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 60S F DEW POINTS --ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND FRONT.  MOST FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE WITH ACTIVITY IN SERN
PORTION WW -- INVOF HDE.  15-20 KT SELYS ARE EVIDENT IN NEARBY UEX
VWP DATA IN THIS AREA...ALONG WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES DERIVED
FROM RUC SOUNDINGS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...

40009886 39980205 43519989 43539649 

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