[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241821 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-242015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 320...

VALID 241821Z - 242015Z

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED VCNTY KTUL...JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCV OVER EXTREME SERN
KS.  SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE
SEWD MOVING COLD OUTFLOW MOVING TOWARD ECNTRL OK AND NWRN AR. 
MOREOVER...LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NW-SE ORIENTED SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY SITUATED THROUGH CNTRL AR HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A HIGHER DEW
POINT AXIS FROM THE KMKO-KFSM-KELD.  MLCAPES IN THIS AXIS ARE IN THE
2000-2500 J/KG RANGE.  

TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR/S OF KTUL/KMKO BY 20Z AND RAPIDLY BECOME
STRONG-SEVERE OWING TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR. WNWLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENCOURAGE CELLS TO
DEVELOP INTO A LINEAR MCS AND BOW AS THEY MOVE SEWD INTO WCNTRL
AR/ECNTRL OK WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  STRONGER STORMS
WILL LIKELY PREFER THE ENHANCED INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG/JUST WEST OF
THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. 

FARTHER E...THE ONCE STRONG ELEVATED STORM CLUSTERS OVER NWRN AR
HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE LLJ AXIS HAS WEAKENED.  BUT...THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL...MORE SURFACE BASED...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW.

..RACY.. 05/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

33649466 36349572 36349252 33599166 

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