[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241803 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-242000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...EXTREME SWRN NEB AND EXTREME NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241803Z - 242000Z

TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE OFF THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTN
WITH THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEFORE
20Z.

17Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK E-W BOUNDARY FROM A LOW VCNTY KDEN TO
SWRN NEB...AUGMENTED BY ELEVATED MORNING TSTMS/ACCAS.  TO THE S OF
THE BOUNDARY...THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED UPSLOPE OWING TO
HEATING AND RESPONSE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM
UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL WAVE.  THE FLOW IS MAINTAINING UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS TO THE FRONT RANGE.

CONTINUED HEATING WILL START TO ERASE CINH ON THE ADJACENT PLAINS
ABOUT 20Z.  CURRENT CONVECTIVE PULSES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
EVENTUALLY ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER EAST AND
RESULT IN RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  OTHER STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM
EWD ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY TOWARD SWRN NEB/NWRN KS LATER THIS AFTN.


THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 6KM IS SOMEWHAT WEAK FOR SUPERCELLS AT
MIDDAY...ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATER
THIS AFTN.  AS A RESULT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY.  MAGNITUDE OF
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.  ALSO...THOUGH DEW POINT DEPRESSION ARE HIGH...PRESENCE OF A
DENVER CYCLONE AND E-W SHEAR ZONE/BOUNDARY... LANDSPOUTS/TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE ZONE FROM JUST E OF KDEN TO
WASHINGTON COUNTY CO.

..RACY.. 05/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

38160225 37910346 38070488 38990495 40070512 40910487
41010296 41050183 40620123 39980105 39250148 38620175 

WWWW