[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241933 
NCZ000-SCZ000-242200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0989
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241933Z - 242200Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ERN NC AND FAR NERN SC AFTER
21Z. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE AFTER 23Z...WHEN STRONGEST
LIFT INTERACTS WITH GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF OCEAN
BREEZE FRONT. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND SPATIALLY
LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN MEAGER...UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S DEWPTS...EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE OF NERN SC NWD INTO THE WRN ALBEMARLE SOUND OF
NC WHERE OCEAN BREEZE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND DEWPTS
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF ERN NC WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO OVER 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AS STRONG
HEATING SHOULD AID IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. STRONG MID LEVEL
WINDS MAX CROSSING THE AREA WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. IN ADDITION STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
ORGANIZES ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND MOVES INTO GREATER
INSTABILITY...MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...ALONG AND EAST OF THE
OCEAN BREEZE FRONT OVER THE INLAND 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES AFTER 22Z.

..CROSBIE.. 05/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

36027564 36417639 36437774 35907892 35217961 34437983
33847979 33417935 33957789 34637706 34887624 35437546 

WWWW