[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241743 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-241945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...WCENTRAL MS AND NERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241743Z - 241945Z

ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SFC
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CU DEVELOPING OVER NERN LA. 
RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCINH HAS DECREASED TO LESS THAN 25
J/KG OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS
WEAK...LITTLE REMAINING CINH INDICATES THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM SERN AR INTO WCENTRAL MS.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH BASED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED IN WAA ZONE OVER
CENTRAL AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION
MAY BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
GREATER SVR THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS
THE AREA...SO MULTICELLULAR TYPE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THAT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LINEAR. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH 2500
J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL FAVOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. AS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING NWRN AR/NERN OK MCV...CONVECTION MAY
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASED SVR
THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 05/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

33119011 34049140 33939249 33349265 32539247 32009133
31969040 32288992 

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