[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241609
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241609 
FLZ000-241815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0985
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241609Z - 241815Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FROM CTY TO NEAR DAB IN THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK...AND WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 

LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOWERING CU WAS FORMING ALONG SFC
TROUGH FROM NEAR TLH TO NW OF DAB. RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND
ONLY 50-100 J/KG OF CINH. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW WAS AROUND 30 KTS
PER 12Z SOUNDING AT TLH AND JAX...LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS VEERED TO WLY
AROUND 10 KTS. THUS EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS AROUND 20-25 KTS...WHICH
WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER...MID LEVELS WERE RELATIVELY
COLD /-10  TO - 11 DEG C AT 500 MB/ WHICH WILL LEAD TO STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG C/KM. THUS SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. IN ADDITION
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST A LINEAR STORM MODE WITH TIME.

..CROSBIE.. 05/24/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29218103 29698119 29818186 30038341 29158300 28558283
27868250 27738139 27598031 

WWWW